BIH-Russia Relations After the Beginning of the Ukrainian War: What Policy does BIH Lead Toward Russia

BIH-Russia Relations After the Beginning of the Ukrainian War: What Policy does BIH Lead Toward Russia

Sead Turčalo  

Abstract

The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 significantly impacted Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), deepening its internal divisions and reinforcing the country’s geopolitical paralysis. BiH remains sharply divided along ethnic and political lines; the Federation aligns mostly with Western policies, whereas Republika Srpska (RS) under Milorad Dodik increasingly aligns with Russia, obstructing unified foreign policy and Euro-Atlantic integration. Politically, RS leverages constitutional veto powers to block state-level alignment with Western sanctions against Russia and promote pro-Russian policies. Dodik has openly embraced Kremlin narratives, actively undermining BiH’s institutional cohesion and stability. His frequent visits and symbolic gestures toward Moscow underscore RS’s strategic pivot to Russia, reinforced by explicit Kremlin support for his anti-Western stance.

Economically, BiH’s relationship with Russia primarily revolves around energy dependency, particularly natural gas supplies via TurkStream. Despite this dependence, Russian economic activities in BiH have limited commercial logic, serving instead Moscow’s strategic goal of exerting geopolitical leverage. Recent attempts to diversify energy sources, such as connecting to Croatia’s LNG terminal, face resistance from pro-Russian political factions in RS and, occasionally, Croat political representatives.

Security-wise, BiH is increasingly aligned with NATO and EU security frameworks, receiving notable military support to bolster resilience against external threats. Nevertheless, RS leadership persistently blocks meaningful NATO integration progress, supported by Russian threats and interference. Notably concerning is RS’s incremental militarization of police forces, potentially setting foundations for a parallel security structure independent from state-level oversight, posing severe risks to Bosnia’s security and unity.

Public opinion remains deeply polarized along ethnic lines: Bosnian Serbs predominantly favor Russia, while Bosniaks and Croats largely support Western alliances. Despite these stark divisions, governance challenges such as corruption and organized crime unite citizens across ethnic groups as critical threats to national stability. Internationally, although BiH has made formal steps toward EU accession, practical policy alignment is consistently undermined by RS’s constitutional obstruction. Moscow exploits these institutional vulnerabilities, maintaining BiH’s position as a contested geopolitical space, undermining Euro-Atlantic cohesion

Looking forward, the report argues that without effective EU and US countermeasures to Russia’s disruptive influence, Bosnia risks remaining trapped in geopolitical limbo. It calls for a more robust and integrated Western strategy, combining political, economic, and security instruments to counteract Russian destabilization efforts and internal fragmentation, essential for BiH’s future stability and successful European integration.

Keywords: Russian Influence, Geopolitical Paralysis, Bosnia’s Stability, EU Accession Challenges