Are Albanian Emigrants Going to Return and Invest in Their Homeland?

Are Albanian Emigrants Going to Return and Invest in Their Homeland?

Arbresh Raveni 
IDEFE Publications, 2025 
9 pp. 
DOI: 10.51331/perspective10
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1. What is the probability of return among Albanian emigrants from the southwestern region of North Macedonia, and which variables decisively shape this likelihood?
2. Under what conditions and motivations are emigrants inclined to invest in their homeland, and how does this intersect with their transnational identities?
3. What institutional, policy, and structural frameworks are required to convert return potential into effective reintegration and development impact?
4. What are the long-term societal and developmental consequences of inaction in addressing the challenge of large-scale emigration and return deterrence?
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Problem definition and significance

Since the early 1990s, North Macedonia has been grappling with an entrenched phenomenon of massive emigration that has reshaped its demographic, economic, and social landscape. This migration wave, driven predominantly by economic hardship, political instability, and a perceived lack of future prospects, has seen more than a third of the population depart in search of better opportunities abroad. The southwestern region, where the Albanian ethnic minority forms a significant part of the local population, has been particularly affected. This exodus has had detrimental effects on the country’s labour force, innovation potential, and demographic stability. The dual impact of depopulation and brain drain poses an existential threat to the nation’s developmental trajectory, placing it among the countries with the highest emigration rates in Europe. Particularly alarming is the departure of young, skilled, and educated individuals whose absence has contributed to labour shortages, stagnant economic growth, and the erosion of social capital.

The consequences of this migratory trend extend far beyond mere numbers. The reduction in the working-age population has placed an unsustainable burden on North Macedonia’s pension and healthcare systems. Meanwhile, the shrinking of the domestic labour pool has constrained the capacity of small and medium-sized enterprises to expand, innovate, or even maintain existing productivity levels. The cumulative effect is a cycle of stagnation that further incentivizes outward migration, creating a feedback loop that undermines national resilience. This situation becomes even more precarious when considered alongside the country’s aspirations for European integration, which demand structural reforms, economic dynamism, and social stability all of which are undermined by the continual loss of human capital.